今日概览
7
节目总数
7
订阅源
11h37m
总时长
Dwarkesh Podcast
(1)
Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
2h 30m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
Al right, this is the episode of my roommate teaches me Semis. It's also the send off for this, this current set. It's yeah, you're, you know, after you use it, I'm like, I can't use this again. I get to get out here. The Sy sunets from door.Okay, Dylan is the CEO of semi Analysis. Dylan, the votinging question I have for you. If you add up the big four, Amazon, Me, Google, Microsoft, they combined a forecast of Caex that you published recently this year is $600 billion. And given you know, yearly prices of renting that compute that would be like close to $50 gigawat. Now, obviously, we're not putting on 50 gigats here. So presumably, that's paying for compute that is going be coming online over the coming years.So I have a question about what how to think about the timeline around when that capex is online.Similar question for the labs where, you know, Open AI just announced that they raise 1$10 billion. Anthropic just announced they raised $30 billion. And if you look at the compute that they have coming online this year. You should tell me how much it is the like is is order to a 4 gigawat total that they'll have this year. It feels like the cost to rent the compute that Open AI and Anthropic will have this year to like sustain their compute spend.😊At, you know,$10,$13 billion a gigawatt.Those individual raises alone are like enough to cover their compute spend for the year. And then this is not even including the revenue that they're going to earn this year. So help me understand first, when is the time scale at which the big tech capex is actually coming online And two, what are the labs raising all this money for if like the the yearly price of 1 GW data center is like $13 billion. So when you talk about the capex of these hyperscalers on the order of $600 billion and you look.cros the rest of the supply chain gets you to on the order of a trillion dollars. A portion of this is, you know, immediately for compute going online this year, right, the chips and the the the other parts of Capex that do get paid this year. But there's a lot of setup capex as well, right, So when we have, when we're talking about 20 gigawWs this year in America roughly incremental incremental added capacity, a portion of this is not spent this year, A portion of that Capex is actually spent the prior.And so when you look at, hey, Google's got $180 billion, actually, a big chunk of that is spent on turbine deposits for 28 and 29. A chunk of that is spent on data center construction for 27, A chunk of that is spent on you know, power purchasing agreements and down payments and all these other things that they're doing for further out into the future so that they can set up this super fast scaling right, and, and and this applies to all the hyperscaleers and other people in the supply chain And so, you know,20 gigawats.😊Roughly deployed this year, a big chunk of that being hyperscalear chunk of not being. And all of these companies, their biggest customers are Anthropic and open eye. Anthroropic and open eye are in the, you know,2 gigawat and, you know,2 and a half gigawat and 1 and a half gigawats roughly right now, they're trying to scale too much larger. right, If you look at what Anthropic has done over the last few months, you know,4 billion,6 billion revenue added. And if we just draw straight line, Hey, yeah, they'll add another $6 billion of revenue a month. people would argue that's bar.That they should go faster. What that implies is that they're going to add $60 billion of revenue across the next 10 months, right.And $60 billion of revenue at the current gross margins that Anthropic had, at least last reported by media would imply that they have, you know, roughly $40 billion of compute spend for that inference for that $60 bill of revenue. that $40 billion of compute at roughly $10 billion a gigawat rental cost means that they need to add $4 gigaw of inference capacity just to grow revenue. And that's saying that their research and development training fleet stays flat, right so.おう?You know, in a sense, Anthropic needs to get to well above 5 GW by the end of this year. And it's going to be really tough for them to get there. But it's possible. Can you can ask a question about that. So yeah.Inthropic was not on track to have5 gigawtts by the end of this year, but it needs that to serve both the revenue that's gone crazier than expected. And maybe it's gonna be even more than that. Plus, the research and training to make sure its models are good enough for next year. How, how, where is that gonna come from, You know, Daro, when he was on your podcast was very, very like conservative, he's like, you know, I'm not gonna go crazy on compute because if my revenue in flex at a different rate at a different point, I don't want to go bankrupt. You know, I want to make sure that we're being responsible with this.A scaling. But in reality, you know, he's definitely missed the pooch in terms of like going like open AI, which was...(已截断)
42章经
(1)
OpenClaw 之后,我只想未来 3-6 个月的事情|对谈 Sheet0 创始人王文锋
57m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
.There's something there.🎼 やだ。🎼 好,我们很开心又请到了谢列零的创始人文峰。哎,这个谢谢曲老师跟上次曲老师录节目也过去了快一年了,差不多正好一年。嗯,对,10个月吧10个月对,而且我们刚才在聊这一波跟去年那波其实很像对吧?去年当时是A正的刚起来然后我们聊的是整个A的东西,然后那波起待其实us带起来的对,然后大家就都开始在看A阵的在今天呢是open cloud又带起来一波。😊然后然后我发现最近大家又都在看agent嗯嗯嗯,所以你感觉现在跟去年的区别是什么?其实我没觉得有本质上的区别啊,我觉得mice跟有个共同点,就是他们都证明了一类。新形态的产品。对,像minus那会刚出来的时候,其主打的场景是dere的场景。这个场景解锁的呃核心的来源是O音模型带来的这个推理能力的的能力。那这一波我觉得它本质上起来的原因是coing的能力的释放。对,就是很多人他分析为什么活起来。有人会说他是可以在你的IM里面。比如说像tgram去直接很方便。去使用啊,有些人会把这个原因归在这儿。但从我的视角来讲,本质open core它可能是第一个真正的把现在最新模型的code定能力压榨到极限的一个形态。在这种情况下,就是说以前大家没想到哎这个事情。能跑得通,能达到这样的效果。但是men把大家做出来之后发现哇,好厉害。所以这时候我觉得我们去年其实一整年很多人也都在关注productactive agent这个事情。那之前就我们都不知道proactive agent长什么样子,但是就是主动性。对对对对,一个是proactive。另外一个就是说agent的这个自我迭代自我进化。那这个话题其实一个被关注了很久,也讨论很久的一个事情,但是没有东西真的跑出来,那open的话其实是把这个东西跑出来。所。对他是我觉得跟max的共同点就是他都证明了,就是说新一代的A认的形态是成立了的。对我觉得是一个非常显著的一个信号。嗯,对我记得去年我们那期博客里面你说的一句话让我印象特别深刻。你说AIcoing是大模型的零销手。对对对,嗯,那其实今天我们看到这个事情其实是已经被证明了的。嗯,所以这里面有个结论是,我觉得可能从现在开始。以及到将来我觉得最终所有agent都 agentent。那其实这一次open虽然它有很多的组建,很多的模块,但它最核心的一个东西叫做一个pa一个agent。那pa agentent它其实就是有极简的一个设计的非常好的一个说简单点可能就是个个它只不是说它在里面解决了mar问题。它解决了不同的channel比的问题。这个是一个点。那另外一个点的话就是。😊年大家可能讨论的多的是说环境我怎么去做L。那其实当时呢大家一个观点呢,就是说我可能需要去针对不同的应用场景,我要去构建不同的环境。然后这个环境呢,然后可能我有些针对这个场景的定制化的一些策略吧啊那比如说像lava样的产品,它有特殊的交互。那实际上到今天为止,我觉得这个事情其实是已经被统一了那基本上你通过tmin加 skill能够去做到。认何的事情啊,以前的话就是说我们可能在一些垂直的领域里面,我们有一些垂直内圈功号或者经验。那这个东西以前是没有办法去skill,或者没有办法去复制。所以这时候我们只能去针对这些场景我们去定制一个我们所谓的垂直。但今天基本上你加上一个coding再加上对应的kill。呃,没有一个场景是做不到。嗯,对,所以现在事实上来看的话就是coding agentent已经成为了最核心的部分。那这面一个变化,就是说机模的扣定能力。跟coding agent是两码事,就是我们需要coing agentent这个东西去把机膜的coing的能力释放出来。所以今天我觉得相对于去年的我们讲说零销手的解论可更进一步的就是说那接下来所有的agent是围绕co去开也好,还是说是研发也好。对,所以我觉得今年可能就大家所有 agentent都会发现,最后本章又变成一个co agent的一个套。对然后去年us它是。啊,我们讲就在那会刚出来的时候,大家都吐槽嘛,就说哎这个东西就是一个套lk有什么好做的对,其实minus它是模型API时代的极致ta的表现。那在目前这个阶段,open core它其实是针对coing agent的 talk的。最好的表现嗯,那是不是极致的表现?这个问题我觉得现在还没有办法判断。但我觉得今年的可能另外一个很大的机会就是说谁能对coding agent。😊talk talk的很好。嗯,是我们如果回到一年前,就拿今天跟年前去做一些对标对比的话,对吧?因为大家agent已经跑了一年了,嗯当时是先起来,然后just我记得是最快跟上的吧。然后就开始有一些小的跟上。然后呢中间大家还衍生出来一些分歧跟选择,就是有讲说我是要做通用agent的。有时我要做一个agent的平台,对吧?就是我提供一些基础能力,然后大家可以在上面各自建自己的agent。然后也有做各种垂直A症的嗯啊,所以现在你回头来看,你觉得会有什么。这些路径的选择里面的一些对错标准之类的。嗯。虽然我觉得很不愿意承认啊,但我觉得事实上可能垂直认的这条路。是可能需要被高度怀疑的一件事情。就刚开其我们讲了,就是说现在coding加上ski的东西,基本上都能实现以前这个垂agegen的效果跟作用。是不止垂直gen的整个把ss都打趴了嘛。对对对对对,官方在前段时间发了一个报告。那个报告里头他介绍了时,现在大家是怎么去用这个c code那我们从绝大多数人的理解来讲的话,可能cd code啊带code嘛,很多人都会觉得它就是一个给工程师用的一个工具。然后去拿它去做软件开发。但实际上在那个报告里面只有49.7%的。😊使用场景是software engineering,就是大家拿它去写代码,那剩下的超过50%的场景都是在那些我们看起来face codinging的一些场景。比如说办公自动化,比如说数据分析,比如说做marketing,或做一些文案的编写copywriting类的一些场景。所以说这个东西我觉得已经不是说我们推演它怎么样。而说现在事实上来讲。cardd code已经能做所有的事情了。那这种情况下,如果我们还在强调垂直呢,我觉得更多他可能是为了避免跟。卡口这样的通用的东西去竞争的一种给自己树立的一个心理的安全感。嗯,对,所以我觉得从事件事实上垂直的这个逻辑是有问题的。今天我们那个群里面不是新明还说了一句话,我觉得还挺有意思的,这样其实我们回头来看抖音应该是内容时代的王者对吧?基本上是一站式平台,所有的内容都在网台上面去靠对,但to p领域,过去都是垂直的对吧?你看美国市场可能有一堆百亿美金。的各种to b那未来是不是to B里面也会有一家类似于抖音这种形态或者字节这种形态的公司,一家独大,或者说这家有没有可能就是open air之类的。嗯。说实话,我现在。现在肯定很难现在很难去预判啊呃,但是我觉得我们可以分析一下,为什么在ss时代出现了很多的垂直的saras。其实为什么软件这个东西大家觉得这个商业模式很好,核心是我觉得。😊软件它解决一个本质的问题,就是说在没有软件以前。大家想去把一个专家的经验决策的能力进行分发的时候,他其实需要培训啊,然后要学习。那这个时间周期是很长的那所以说软件的出现。第一次的让专家能力能够快速的进行规模化的复制,对吧?以前我需要学的,像我用这个软件我可能学个一下午,我就知道怎么用了。这时候我按软件的操作,我可能就也获得了一个类似专家的一个能力,嗯,对,所以当时下次。大讲的重要都是唐赢的耗嘛。对,所以说这个时候你要去复制专家能力,其实你就得需要可能你针对行业或针对一个具体的问题,或者领域,我要去设计一套独特的交互,通过不同交互,然后我去把专家的工作流变成1个UI。那其实现在。为什么包括说现在work出来以后,就是美股的软件股跌了很多。那很多人就会觉得以前在软件要花很多时间要去做。但现在有了这种新的工具之后,我实现它的成本或者实践变得很快。但其实我觉得这可能是表层的因素。那更深层的因素就是我刚才讲的软件本质上在过去的一个核心地位是说它可能是规模化复制专家能力的一个载体。那现在有了这个A政的以后,我希望获得一个专家能力,这件事情变得。更容易了。以前晚上要打开网页。打开ss,我要去学习要怎么去交互。那现在可能有了Aent之后,我直接跟Aent说我的目的。那他自己就会去提出方案,解决问题,然后再进行自我的迭代。对,而且以及以前的ss其实是一个通用的专家,对吧?反正不管怎么样,你就用这一套东西。所以以前的ss和 to p大家强调的是best practice是最佳实践。嗯好,然后大家都去复制这个专家时间就OK了。但确实每一家的情况是不一样的嘛。那AI相当于说你给每家一个客制化的一个专家,这个专家还能随着你的情况时刻去改变。对,所以回到徐老师,你的问题的话。三?就说未来会不会有一个类似说企业版的抖音。因为在这个里面的话,就我们过去讲best practice,我觉得AI时代可能best practice没有那么重要。因为best practice本质是说我们常委的需求。😊我没有办法去很好的解决。,所以我们需要去让大家把做一件事情的方法或者共识能够去收敛到best practice上面。因为这时候RY是够的。但是呢在今天其实你的一个best practice跟不是best practice的一个东西。让AI去执行的话,对于AI来讲其实都一样啊,没什么区别。对,所以在这个里面。就是如果通用A政的逻辑成立,那最后我觉得可能据说是不是Oen呀,是不是S,我觉得这个不确定,但是我觉得肯定会有一个。统一的东西。能够去解决绝大多数的问题跟需求。对你该其实我们该讲两点第一点,就是大家会觉得说AI颠覆了之前to p这么多年的很多积累,对吧?因为大家觉得软件本质上就是一堆,但这个我同意你讲的。因为我有一种类比的逻辑啊,就是如果说软件的壁垒跟价值在的话,那美国的ss公司早就被所有中国公司取代掉了。对对对,因为中的就便宜嘛,对那如果这个逻辑成立的话,那早就应该是中国ss。嗯,但这个至少没有看到。对,另外就是know how这个事情。但这个我想再追问一下,就你真的觉得skill因为ski现在其实还是非常简单的嘛,对吧他真的能取代那么复杂的一套ss的 know how的那些东西嘛?你看基本上最近就是rop只要出了一篇文章给了一套s,然后对应的那个行业的ss就大跌。嗯,他真是一个能那么简单的一个替代解决方案。嗯,。我现在倾向于是的。就是。skill刚出来的时候,10月份,其实我就在题课上发了个动态。我说大家对skill这个东西是低估了的。就现在大家质疑skill是不是能够去很好的去。复现原来我在ss上的工作流,我觉得本质还是对于现在模型能力的一个怀疑。就是如果模型能力他持续的去。提高。那有什么理由呢?就是你现在给一个你工作上的一个说明,给我们一个真实的人。那他能够按照这个工作上的说明去把这个工作完成吗?我觉得是可以的。只如说这里面可能这个说明里面有一些工具,这些工具我可能需要去学习一下。那现在的情况就是我觉得模型不是说我们还是要等他到像人妖。其实我觉得现在他已经到了嗯人妖的地步。其实我觉得现在今天最大大的问题。已经不在于说是模型会不会。能够完全替代ss其实这个事情我觉得是已经是被证明了的。所以我插一句,就是你是非常认可说AI和A真的会颠覆ss的。对对对,也就我前面讲的就是ss的这个逻辑。本账是一套标准的SOP或者说工作流。这个SOP呢,以前你只能通过一个交互约束大家的这个操作跟行为,然后尽量能够去得到一个特样的结果。这个结果可能就是你原先s里面一张表单或者说是一个ashboard或者说就是一条记录。但今天的话,其实你用A去做的话,你也一样能得到表单或者ashboard或者说这么一个记录。就是从效果上来讲的话,我觉得它是能一样的。而且从使用的体。な来じゃ。就是如果现在agent的使用方式的门槛能进一步降低的话,那我觉得对于绝大数人来说,为什么还要用ss?另外一个点就是今天。我觉得目前最大的问题是很多人其实不知道。现在的Aent已经强到什...(已截断)
Web3 101
(1)
E75|OpenClaw 成为「系统级威胁」?和安全专家和训虾师聊聊龙虾安全养殖
1h 7m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
🎼大家好,欢迎收听Y3101,我是刘峰。今天是2026年3月12日周四的上午。🎼这期节目呢我想和几位朋友聊一聊,关于open claw,也就是龙虾的安全性的问题。open cloud是最近一个非常火爆的AI应用。一方面呢大家认为这是一个极大的创新,成为一个现象级的产品。但是另外一方面,它的安全性也被大家视为一个重要的议题。今天我请到了两位朋友。著名的安全专家于璇老师和带着我很早就开始探索龙虾这个生态的龙虾专家知线老师,两位老师跟大家打个招呼好吗?于轩先请,大家好。我是漫物的创始人于谦玩安全玩的很久,龙虾的出现,第一时间我就做了大量的安全的测试。所以这块积累的不超的经验,准备这里跟大家做一些分享。好的,期待知县。请大家好,我是知线。首先在两位老师前面,我不敢称老师,还是刘芳老师和于贤老师啊,两位是老师,我是学生,也特别巧。前段时间刘芳老师来日本的时候,我们吃了饭,吃饭的时候,我就。疯狂的跟刘老师安利,那时候还叫C boatat。第二天我就帮刘老师在我的机器上养了一个独立workspaceag。其实这个事儿就算是一种安全风险了。对,一会儿我们可以讲一讲。是是是等会可以再聊聊这个细节。两位技术老师也是朋友亦师亦友。所以我希望我们今天后面的分享呢,一方面能够跟我们的听众讲一讲在养龙虾的过程中,有哪些基本的安全的原则,应该记。😊主更重要的话也跟大家去分享一些真正的实用的技巧。但这使用技巧不是怎么用好它,而是怎么管理好它,避免很多不必要的风险。最近一方面是open cloud龙虾的火爆。在另一方面的话呢,我看到了大量的特别是传统的权威媒体在发出警告,认为龙虾有非常严重的安全风险。在你们看来,open cloud这样的一个产品可能带来的风险。会出现在哪些地方,哪些看上去似乎是不能避免,必然决定了它会成为巨大的隐患存在。于轩老师,你先请好吗?OK龙虾的出现啊,确实是一个现象级的。在安全上,其实他们做了很多的工作,我们通过他的gitth安全的更新,以及每一两天他们的一些fix都能看到。现在大概有250多个新发布的安全公告。但是呢这里有一个非常有意思的认知上断层。曾经啊用户的设备,比如说他的个人电脑或手枪玩的服务器,它上面的各种安全管控,或者说他的安全防御体系,它是一个非常成熟的一个模式。一的电脑上可能装了杀毒软件,或者说安全的工具。但是龙虾的出现啊,它给用户带来了一种疯模的情绪,很多的用户会给龙虾授权大量。的权限。但是其实很多的用户对于授权之后带来的后果其实是不清楚的。在这样的一个授权模式下啊,包括用户的formmo的情绪下,必然会对曾经124年已经建立的安全防卫体系造成巨大的挑战。现在很多的媒体,包括我们国家的一些官方的主流的一些声音啊做了一些风险的提醒。我们是觉得这个提醒是很正确的。所以这并不是那种给大家制造恐。恐慌,而这些提醒在你看来是必要的,也是正当的。一个核心原因就在于我们作为龙虾的用户,open cloud的用户是必须要给他做各种各样的授权,授权越多,体感是越好。但实际上这就是传统的便利性和安全的冲突。对,其实我们从open cloud的名字啊,这个open特别吻合open cloud,它的安全的设计初衷。如果说你给他的权限是束手束脚。比如说他也支持现在box,就是沙盒嘛,也支持各种限制。包括他前段时间有一个版本从302开始啊默认的安装,它就会进行很多的限制。当然他也提供很高效的一些配置的方式啊,就是能够让你打开很多的权限。但实际上在我们的角度,open cloud它真的能够发挥它的巨大的能力,那它一定会涉及到各种系统命令的执行,各种网络的请求,各种第三方的de的安装等等吧。它的权限一旦打开同样的相关的风险,它肯定就不来了。所以开放性是它的魅力,但是也是潜在风险必然会存在的一个原因。之前我跟你第一次见面的时候,我的第一个问题就是这东西我越给他的授权越多,他可能越好用。这玩意我是有点不太敢玩的。你其实当时一直在怂恿,我说你必须得试一试。但是今天我请你来这个节目,我觉得可能你看先给大家讲讲,你能看到的一些安全的可能存在的问题。嗯,好的,当时我所总刘老师试一试,原因也很简单,因为是在我机器上跑的吧。我相对可控。其实这个当时他的创。peter他最早开始用的时候,安全风险其实更大裸奔的情况更多。我之前研究过他们的chan log,从他们11月份的版本就看过,那个时候甚至连telegrambo的健全都没有。因为telegrambo其实大家知道是可以任意人都能搜索到的。你只要知道他的bo的 IDD那个时候的cloudbo任何人跟他聊天,跟peter本人跟他聊天是一样的,大家可以想想,那个时候有多忙。后面peter自己做了discod那时候已经进来上千人的时候,他放进去的那。龙虾,那时候还没有sandbox这个模式,本质上也是直接把access给了大家。大家也在那个disco里面各种调戏,各种钓鱼啊,希望能从这个龙虾嘴里钓出一些皮带的隐私,或者拿到它的 key,然是后来都没有成功。所以我觉得安全风险呢,它其实不是一个特别绝对的事情。主流媒体去提示肯定是对的。另一方面,站在用户角度,我觉得可以不用特别的去慌一下就特别担心这个东西特别危险。在我看来,它是一个类似金。塔的逐字提升的。因为你使用的越深,需要的权限越大,它的风险它会越高。所以说第一个就你如果只是安装,然后配好了这个大模型。其实你这边的暴露的面呢主要是agent,他能读当前你这个用户能读的大多数文件了。比如说什么下载文件夹呀,个人目录下面的一些配置呀,一些如果你有的话,有密钥啊什么的,他应该能看到。但未必主动去读,但是它有暴露的面了,就是他已经能读了。那这个时候其实你要想防护的话,那就。是什么docker啊、VM隔离啊,这种不要让他看到文件。下一步你开始跟他交互的时候,其实这部分的风险主要还是一个信息泄露的风险。这个其实跟你直接跟拆GPT聊天区别不大。因为毕竟咱们的内容都要传到人家的服务器嘛,那就不要发敏感信息啊,不要把密钥密码什么的发给他。再往下呢,你可能需要去让他帮你读写一些文件了,真的帮你干活了。比如帮我写文章呀,帮我看一下这个东西,这个时候就面临的风险。就是大模型有时候会要么理解错你的意思,要么额外做一些事情,他会误删误改文件。或者改错文件。如果你养过虾,可能最常见的就是它会把自己改死。对,就是每天会遇到的一个挑战。所以大家也在开玩笑说,现在与其让龙虾做各种解放我们的生产力的任务,不如说我们每天在养它,就是只做的一个主要工作,就是在配置它。他自己改自己大概率会改死。就在录博克之前的大概半小时还改死过一次啊,就是很神奇。包括我其实还碰到过什么呢?就是整个。😊被他初始化了一次。还好我有备份啊,有没有用备份的话,就完蛋了,就可能原来积累的东西都没有了。再往下用,大家可能会让他操作一些浏览器啊,就是做一些自动化。那这个时候就是浏览器里面你已经登录过的信息,他是能拿到的。就相当于你登好了你的账号,然后让另外一个人帮你去操作,这个风险是一样的。再就是你让他访问个什么网站,或者让他做一件事情。但是在他的大模型的记忆里可能是一个错误的,或者说被恶意注入的链接。那这个时候他如果访问了也会带来风险。再往下就是你如果去安装scalekill或者用它去装一些软件。那首先这个scaleki里面可能有一些恶意的东西,你相当于引狼入室了嘛,软件也是一样的,有可能这大模型被注入的软件是一个错误的版本或者错误的链接,那他也可能会装到一个错误的软件。最后就是如果你再让他去做一些自动化。他每天啊跑一个什么。那这个事儿其实出错的可能性就放大了,就有可能他已经把你的东西搞坏了很久,你不知道,然后他每天都在搞,每天都在搞,到后面。可能就出问题了。这个风险就是随着你用的越深了,给他的权限越大,你的场景越深,他就越容易出问题。所以大家也不用太恐慌。如果你只是跟他聊聊天,其实暂时还好,注意一下本地文件被他访问的可能性,及时的做做隔离和重置就可以了。因为之前你刚才举的这个例子已经非常细致了。你已经从一个用户从开始用到网上面升级,还有些很具体的场景中会暴露的风险都已经一一的梳理了。可能有些听众他会用的更深,有的可能只是浅尝辄止的。我的建议就是说,如果大家对之前讲到的一些细节是非常有共同感觉的,可以真的想一想,为什么之前把这个提出来。如果有一些可能觉得哎好像跟我关联不大,没关系。如果你玩的越深,你会越对刚才之前讲的那些细节越有心有戚戚然的感觉。所以呢如果有朋友真的有这种感觉,可以倒回去再听一下。既然之前你已经讲的。挺具体了,我就想请你能不能再抽象一下,能不能给大家提供一些你觉得非常朴实的,任何人都应该牢记在心的几条规则。就是你每天跟自己讲的,我要用这个龙虾必须要记住这几句话。当然了,我请你分享这完,我我也请玉轩老师把它给大家的一些最基本的安全原则的建议跟大家分享。我觉得如果让我选第一条的话,那就是病从口入。你只要不给他一些外部。呃输入,比如说你让他装scale也好,读一个网上给你的链接,或者别人给你的文档,这些在我看来就属于喂他吃东西嘛。在喂他吃东西的时候,足够谨慎一点,不要随便喂,或者喂之前提示一下,我只让你看看,我感觉就能够避免很多恶性的问题。数据泄露。在我看来,虽然也不是好事情,但是它没有那么恶性,恶性的就是说别人植入到你的电脑了。这个时候它不光数据泄露了。你整个权限也都泄露了。就是整个电脑就变成别人的了,这个就更危险。再加一条的话,我觉得就是网络。这个大家可能有点容易忽视的,不要把权限暴露到公网。大家可能对公网没有概念的话,就记住一条装的时候就选它有个叫local loop吧,反正就是本机回路,就是不要做任何开放的事情。如果你需要在本集以外去访问龙虾,最好的办法就是用telegram或dicod这种有完整健全的链路去访问。对于普通用户就是这样的。如果你在高级一点,你希望你的局域网能够去访问。那我希望大家装一个叫tailscale的组网工具,这样的话,哪怕你有多地公网机器互相访问的需求,它也可以用这种协议把它虚拟成一个局域网,这样也会把权限能够控制的非常好。这个东西其实是龙虾自己也自带的,你可以理解为,他也推荐用这种方式去访问的。好的,于先老师,你看看有没有补充,或者你愿意跟大家提示的,最核心的必须牢记在心安全原则。其实我们做龙虾的这些安全研究啊,我们是预测的。的几个场景呢也预设了一些用户的群体。比如说我刚才前面有说大量的用户,其实是指大量的他不一定有技术沉淀,或者说对AI相关的历史迭代的各种工具啊,各种模型使用的很全的一类群体吧。这类群体他这的基数就应该是最大的,就是很多的都是入门并没有到很熟练的程度。那还有一类群体呢是属于有些特殊需要有保密的,包括一些。大型的企业对吧?相关的一些部门这类的群体啊,如果说直接在他们的办公电脑上或者相关的一些主机设备上安装open car,那就很有可能会打破他们之前的那个防御体系。第三类群体就是像我们这样,大家折腾这个龙虾啊,已经很久,可能这一个多月,大家都在玩各种大平台出的解决方案,可能大家也都做了一一些尝试。但是不管怎么样,你看这三类群。其实我想把它提炼到一个核心的安全的原则。就是如果我能给大家做强烈建议的第一条就是隔离。因为open crawl本质上啊还是一个非常新的框架,还带有很大的生态的属性。我们如果去看open cloud gethub整个的核心的组件,那就是我们看到的open cloud下面的open crawl这个仓库。那其实它还有什么c hub,它col hub上可以安装各种till,它有很多的扩展的生态,官方支持呢也有官方不一定是原生支持。但很多人围绕它做了大量的这些工作的那各种。同聚各种插件,各种改良的各种f的版本。这个真正流行啊,到现在可能也短短了一个多月。回过头来看一下open cloud当然当然它的核心仓库本身每天都在大量的fix,大量的不管是漏洞,还是相关的解决一些bug。然后呢,它rease一些版本,可能是每一两天会有一个版本出来。大家也会很疯狂去更新,去测试它的一些新的机制,大体上也带来大量的不稳定。原因是因为大家如果去。看得见很多fi,有很多也是A...(已截断)
Modern Wisdom
(1)
#1071 - Bill Gurley - If You Hate Your Job, This is How to Start Over
1h 56m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
What got you into thinking about the idea of career regret as somebody that's had a very seemingly successful and fun career, Why did you think about it, I, I used to, so I spent 25 years as a venture capitalist. And the four years before that as a sell side analyst on Wall Street. and through that process, I started writing as a way to differentiate myself. And so I was an early blogger. It was actually a f. That's how old I. when I started and.I got in the habit of when I had ideas jotting them down and then, you know either developing them, a lot of them ended out just undeveloped, but if I developed them, they would become a blog post and there was a period in my career where I was reading a ton of biographies and I finished this third one and saw a through line with these other two from people that were in wildly different fields and I jotted those notes down and that thing kind of simmered and breathed and took on a little bit.Of a life and I got asked by the dean of the business school here in Austin at University of Texas to talk to the NBA class one day and I was like, can I do this And he said, sure, so I pulled it out and developed it a little bit as a PowerPoint presentation anyway, they posted that on YouTube a few people noticed some people that have been on your show, James Clear noticed and he posted it on his website and people started prodding me to develop it as a book and.A few years ago, I decided to begin retirement as a venture capitalist it actually takes a while, unfortunately and in that window I thought about doing this, I thought about doing a book and a lot of people wanted me to do a book, a lot of people wanted me to do a VC book or an investment book or tellall book on the Uber experience and I was more drawn to this idea and a few other people proed me who said you know like go go do and it felt more authentic, it felt like something that could have,A bigger impact. And I was drawn to that at this moment in my life. I was drawn to this particular thing. So I spent like six years working with a co writer and researcher developing and developing it further and making it this way. But you used the word regret, we did along the way, I launched a survey on survey monkeykey that said, if you could go back.And start over, would you, Would you do a different career. And 7 out of 10 people said yes. And I eventually took that to Wharton people analytics, and they did a more scientific version of a much broader audience and came back 6 out of 10. but very similar. and that notion of career regrets. interesting. I had the opportunity to talk to Daniel Pink, who you may know who wrote on the show about regret about regret. And in that book, he says the biggest regrets.People have. and, and, and he showed me a graph. It actually gets worse as you get older towards end of life. Our regrets of inaction. He calls them boldness regrets. It's what you didn't do like humans are great at forgiving themselves, made a mistake. Learn from it, won't do it again. but they ruminate about what they didn't try.And.So I, you know,, I've thought about this long and hard now since I've been working on it for six years, I fear our current education path has become a bit of a conveyor belt. People like we're pushing these children into this meat grinder and, and we're pushing them towards jobs that are, you know, typically called safe jobs, at least before AI and.I think they're learning to grind. That's what Angela Duckworth been saying. Now, you know, the perseverance part, we've taught them. But if they don't have the love for it, it turns into burnout.And so the purpose of this book that I wrote is hopefully to give as many people permission.To go do what they want in life, you know, and, and look, I'm sure it won't touch everybody. but if there's.A subgroup of people who read this and have the conviction that they can go succeed in the thing they love. I think that'll be a huge impact on the world. Like, I think the people that do that are the people. you know, these people like that are just love what they do. and not only are they more successful, but I think they radiate a bit. You know, and spread positive energy. Well, that mimetic as well. they become a role model for other people. That's right go and do. Oh, he took a chance on that thing that he wanted to do and.Wow, it didn't work out. And his life didn't blow up. or it did work out. And he's really happy. That's right.😊Thinking about the.Fact that we seem to regret inaction, boldness, regret. Yeah, have you reflected on why you think that is, what it is in the, the human mind that causes us to.H。Prefer decisiveness over. I was hoping to bring up one of the many biases I've read about in all the behavioral science books. But I'm going to go to a different place, which is, I think we ruminate a lot.Like, like our brains, you know, constantly are, are replaying things in our minds. And maybe that's what dreaming is, too. But I think because of t...(已截断)
没理想编辑部
(1)
Vol.217 我虽然不至于不幸,但感到很烦躁
1h 2m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
🎼I.你以万真子。た。🎼は.Corery, concrete.🎼Lo.L some manner to good.🎼hello大家好,欢迎收听没理想编辑部,我是思珍,我是乔木,我是林兰,我是何叶。众所周知呢,今年2026年是丙火年,也是大火年。在这一年呢人就容易着急上火,以及比较烦躁,或者说就是心里总容易有一股无名火吧。反正我们几个最近稍微有一点点这样的情况。当然玄学上的事情我们是比较外行,也聊不太清楚,但是身体还有心理上的这种反应。😊是可以来聊一聊的。所以先来问一下各位最近的心情指数如何,我最近的心情属于干打雷,不下雨行,自己心里噼里啪啦,非常烦躁,最近真的很容易有一股无名后,上周还去看中医呢,但我看中医那个起点是为了治自己的鼻炎,因为马上就要进入春季了嘛。北京的春季还挺吓人的。对于鼻炎患者来说,结果那个中医老师,他看到我的情况之后,他就说我觉得你最近。火气有点大,他就给我拔了一个罐,就发现我后边那个地方,因为有好几个圆点嘛,的地方的颜色就很深,有的地方颜色很浅,可能就是你的那个心理的状态出现在自己的身体上面,很容易一点就着道,但是很努力的压制自己不要找起来,表面还是比较平静。你们吗?我感觉我年前的时候,心情经常非常差,想要创死所有人有一种什么活都不想干了。的感觉。但是经过一个年再加上出去玩了一趟的调试,好像最近还可以,但是我也不知道这种休假带来的正向buff能持续多少。所以我们拭目以待吧,拭目以待。我非常理解,因为我也是年前因为也病了嘛,病了很久,一直没办法运动,工作也不是那么的开心,所以各种东西叠加也是想瑞,等到过年就好了,等到放假就好了。等到真的放假过。过年了之后呢,嗯也不能说没有好一点,肯定是有好一点的。但是它的好的那个一点已经没有以前那么多了。就以前好像真的放了一个很长的长假,回来之后,那个状态还是会更好一点更管用。对,但是现在是真的没也没有很好,就有点像是抽水马桶。它长期都有点堵,平时呢没什么事儿,还行。比如说如果是放。这个什么长假的话,就等于说你刚强力给他通了一回。但是一个抽水马桶它有问题的话,它就是一个长期有问题的东西。就除非你真的整个马桶给换了。你懂我意思吗?但总之是有共享一种跟吴师傅相似的这个以为自己过个年之后会好很多,但是其实也就是好了一丢丢,因为其实我从广东回来那几天天气也很差,回到北京,天气也还是很差。所以就心情也很差。嗯,但我刚才其实有一个问题,我还没问。因为我想问的是,那去年是什么年来着,不知道你超纲,我是在今年太多人在说是大火年,然后很火火火火,我就知道他是啥年了,去年去九子离火是说的啥呀?因为我清晰的记得我们去年也是在差不多的时候,嗯,有一期聊了无能狂怒,所以我就在想,这究竟是一个玄玄问题,还是说他是一个。周期性的问题,有可能春天就是会让人狂能,开始无能狂怒,无能是一直都很无能的。你们刚说就是过年的时候,整个人心态平和,我也晒,就我在家的时候,我每天因为我妈的那个床上阳光非常非常的好。我每天在那正着晒一面,被着再晒一面,就自己整天在那个床上翻来滚去给自己晒一面,而且觉得自己整个人非常的平静。我就感觉我非常适合当。条什么也不干的咸鱼,真的是啥也不干,我就会非常爽。回来工作之后就开始烦躁。叶子呢我觉得我不只是今年吧,我可能一直处于一种是那个我的解放日志里面有一句经典著名台词,我虽然不至于不幸,但感到不快乐。对,大概是这两年一直处在这么一种状态下,放了一个长假,确实是会让状态会好一点,但是你就感觉那个问题搁置在了那里,我确实也是因为去的是。热带旅游嘛,在那里待着的时候,跟你刚才说的一样,正面晒完晒反面,基本上什么都不用想,阳光就可以让人忘掉所有的不快乐。嗯,但是我当时在热带的时候,我还在想,我说哦,我估计这种状态应该能支撑我很久,结果我大概就是在复工的第二天开始就已经开始不快乐。第二天真的就这个位置吧,高碑店真的了,不中不中不中不很中,对我也是上班的第一天就没有很。😊我朋友说,我现在是一个全职恨高碑店博主。就是我副业是工作,我的主业是很高碑店,这是什么新的垂直小众赛道。,是是是,因为自从我们聊完开年第一期那期聊这个日常痛苦这个事情,还是得到一些共鸣,也是超出我们的意料。那一期里面,佳瑞也提到说就慢慢就会习惯了,不用再反复咀嚼这一份痛苦。当时说的是在当下我们还是希望把这个痛苦说出来之后,肯定会慢慢习惯的。但是。现在过去了俩月现在可以拿它来赚钱了,还是很恨呢,我还没有晒干。我依旧每天还是很恨,每天在那个地铁上从地铁站下来,要走到公司就老长嘛。我每天都还是会在心里面嘟囔一句说真远啊,我现在觉得苦难式文学的温闯,所以是你每天都要重复踏上同一段旅程是没有办法跳出的。如果能用恨高碑文学招商的话也不错,至少。用我用我的苦难换来了一些什么,但是目前还没换来,就先这样吧,可以招什么啊?可以招小牛电动吗?还是说。因为我看到有的人会把电动车停在那个地铁站门口,嗯,那有没有什么小牛电动或者是爱玛电动车也可以电动车不等待等待,哎,真太好笑了。因为小聊这个提是,在我们录这期节目的前几天,反正因为我们每次吃完午饭都要下楼散步嘛,散步的时候,大家那个走路的路径也很像是一只公蚁,在围着自己的工区转圈。当时跟那个叶子随便闲聊的时候,他就说。到他旅游回来之后就已经开始烦躁,然要炸了。整个整个北京。好了,我本来想说整个高危店,结果是整个北京,那也支持对,也支持支持支持。我觉得可能大火年还有一个意义,也是我在小书上有的没得看来的,也是排毒的一年就火嘛,肯定就排毒,都把你那些毒素给你逼除出来,在年前还有现在就很像是在经历一个排毒期。因为我年前也生病来着,就里里拉拉的。😊那个莫名其妙的病,莫名其妙的间断性发烧,反正也很痛苦,还搬家。就不仅公司搬家,我也搬家。上一周有一件事儿让我小烦了一下,但是最后发现你要解决烦躁那个路径就是得行动,你要么战斗,要么放下,然后你战斗了之后可能就没那么烦躁了。因为我上周我是买了一把椅子,那个椅子吧,迟迟不给我发货,我本来就是跟商家约定好了,我说可以3月初那天。你给我发货,结果他到了那天他没有给我发货,我就很生气。因为此前我是在1月底的时候下单的,就我已经下很久的单了,就去跟淘宝官方说,我就说我要投诉淘宝的官方,他确实是会很详细的调你的具体的聊天记录。他又说判定这个投诉是成功的那你看呃是要他第二天把这个东西发出来还是怎么样的。我说那可以让他先发一下,后续再看,就果他第二天还是没发淘宝反应很快,他就给我打电话说这一单。因为判定对方就是完全的算是违规了,所以他给了我34.5块的红包。这个红包呢60年内有效。哇,好慷慨的红包6房产证了。是我想说他是对你有信心,还是对他自己这个平台应该都挺有信心,我对于这个60年的这个但可能对我没信心。因为有信心的话,应该是15天内有效,我就马上把它花出去了嘛。但是一下子我拿了这34块钱,我就。觉得此前受过的那些罪都已经不算啥了,就是那些等待也不算啥。因为我退了之后,我立马我就下单了宜家的,我觉得还是得回归一些简单实用的东西。有的时候你太想要去选一个什么的话,可能反而不一定会像你的预期一样。所以就是这种有的没的的东西,像各种各样的事情就很烦。但是你一旦决定捍卫自己的权益,可能就会得到一个红包。嗯,我其实好像不太是烦躁的。😊阶段,当然烦躁情绪肯定也会有,但我可能更像是悲伤,因为因为过渡到下一个阶段了嘛,对我觉得有点像是过渡到下一个阶段,有两个小事可以分享,一个是上周的时候,我一直在等上周五,为什么呢?因为上周五是harrytyles的新专辑发布的当天啊,当然不是大家听到这期节目,上周我在不重要。那个专辑发布之后,我就坐地铁。来上班嘛,听到最后一首歌的时候,我就哭了,从地铁站走到公司真的太远了,我就又哭了。对,真的是边听那个歌边在哭。那因为有口罩也无所谓了。当然也无人在意。那首歌叫carlo song呃,harrry style新专辑的最后一首歌很好听,我很喜欢他那个歌反复在唱的一个歌词是I know what you really want,他就一直在重复这个歌词,I know what you really want。就是听到这一段的时候,他当然那个歌的旋律本身也很好嘛,就一直在流眼泪。我觉得肯定是我自己知道我此时更想我想时放的生命差不多,我此时可能更想要去比如说想去山里徒步,或者是去看看海啊,看看湖啊,看看山,然后不想走在那个路上,所以我就会流泪吧。他没有什么特别的事儿发生,,就单纯是整个人的。能量没有说很高,底色比较悲伤的状态,这个很难形容。因为大家可能听我们播客会觉得听起来还蛮快乐的。然后现在确实也是挺轻松快乐的,但是他的这个底色吧,它又是悲伤的,我很难形容这个状态。底色是苍凉,对对对,还有一个事就是今天早上特别搞笑,我碰到叶子嘛,在我们的休息室叶子来做咖啡,但那个很好笑,我那时候我。看到叶子在咖啡机那弄咖啡,然后我一看叶子在给他的瑞幸加裟,好荒谬啊。然后我说嗯他在这干什么?那我说你是在给你的瑞幸加裟吗?他说是不够支撑我今天对,其实我我原本是不会碰上叶子,原本我的咖啡已经冲好了。因为我每天早上都会喝一条猫头鹰速溶咖啡是我的这个仪式,但是今天早上撞见叶子是因为我已经。冲好了我的那一杯咖啡,我回到座位上,我准备要喝。然后我看见里面有一只死了的蚊子。其实这个事儿本来是可以很烦躁,但是由于我的这个底色悲伤,我都没有烦躁起来,我只是看见那只挂在那个卑鄙的那只死掉的蚊子,叹了一口气。发现另外一个同事也在过自己的荒谬人生。对我就又拿了一条新的咖啡粉,倒掉这个咖啡,洗我的杯子,然后再重新冲一包速溶咖啡。因此在休息室里看见了,再给自己的任幸加shothort的叶叶子,就觉得这一切非常的悲伤,但同时又有点幽默。对我觉得就如果给这一幕配一个古典乐的BGM就会有一种假装科的感觉,而且我真的觉得他像那种。两个地方同时在进行了分镜头,就大家各有各的荒谬悲惨生活。但是每一个人都很平静,就是很平静的在解决这个问题。是的,大家都汇集到了这个休息室。,你看这个剧本都写好了,这个还有续集,到了快接近中午的时候,我的另一个同事佳俊,他回来,他上午有外勤要跑一下。那他呢也是每天早上肯定要喝一个咖啡的,他自己是有一个雀巢的机子,到了水之后,他说。fuck没有新的咖啡胶囊,那个胶囊咖啡机应该是之前某次品牌合作的时候,人家送的,人家同时送了两盒咖啡胶囊,他很快就被喝完了。喝完了之后,按照我司的这个采购法则呢,因为我们同事有另外一个咖啡机,所以你是不会再专门采购这种更贵的咖啡胶囊的,所以呢他就闲置了。但是呢呃我们的同事家俊他会觉得那个咖啡机更好喝。所以他现在就像每天自带鸡蛋去煎饼。一对对对,四代咖啡胶囊来公司用公司的咖啡机把进去给瘫了。对,今天晚了一点来,他倒的时候,他准备要做咖啡,然后发现咖啡胶囊都没了。所以今天我们这个编辑部的咖啡故事,总共有三段这个结束了。那我再加一个平平无奇的对照组,就是本人每天早上不管公司咖啡机做出来的咖啡有多难喝,我都会打一杯热美式。因为那个公司的咖啡就是又苦又涩。嗯,但是吧。在你喝这种苦涩的东西,反而觉得活着,就你懂吗?就是有比我更苦,一口下来你就醒了,出品也非常稳定,因为是稳定的苦涩。那如果假如以后有瑞幸广告的话,我们会再调整。由于现在我司的咖啡标准远低于瑞幸,没什么可挑剔的,没什么可挑剔。所以叶子的版本是什么?确实是这种小事儿,会让你就是叹一口气的那种烦躁吧。我不知道大家会不会有那种吃饭的时候,会遇到一种烦躁。就是比如说你。天点了一份炸酱面,但是你怎么也拌不开那个面,它小小的,但是它确实是会像一个倒刺一样,就稍微让你膈应那么一下。今天这杯咖啡确实如此,它其实是我昨天因为领了一个券减5元,所以你才买了,要不然会选择公司的咖啡。我今天老实讲我在坐地铁坐到四惠东的时候,我就开始在思考我今天是自己做咖啡,还是去把我那个券用掉,嗯,大概走到。😊到门口的时候,我决定说那我去点一个瑞幸的这个咖啡吧。结果那你最近的那个烦躁,除了今天早上的咖啡,还有其他吗?其实有,但是我不知道会不会这么讲,就有点太觉得我可能就是到了这个年纪之后,你时不时的会觉得自己有一点我最近就处在一个比较漫长的卡住的阶段,一直找...(已截断)
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
(1)
Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
1h 20m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
Al right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. Freebis out savingaving the world, creating new potatoes or I don't know. Kino, maybe some Brussel sprouts. I'm not sure what he's working on at this point in his place. His personal favorite beststy, always says that when I'm not here, I want Brad Gerner in the seat. Welcome back, we haven't seen you on the pod since yourre shout out at the state of the Union, take us behind the scenes for a brief moment, Your Brad, of what it's like to get a shout out from Pos.😊The stated, did you know it was coming, Did you choreographed this thing, Did you, Did you choreographed that or was out more spontaneously had no idea it was coming.And in fact, I found out after the fact that it wasn't in the speech and the president added it to the speech, so I don't even think it wass awesome few days before going to happen, but we got an invite to the State of the Union and you know, listen, it's an institution, this has happened every year for 250 years.In the country, I've never been. I thought I did know he was going to talk about Trump accounts. So I figured if I'm ever going to go, that's the time to go. And I have to say, you know, I'm just a sucker for Democratic institutions and Democratic traditions., it was an extraordinary night. set aside, you know, the headlines about what Democrats did or Republicans did just the whether it's a Democrat president or Republican president that this happens every year. You have to go report on the state of the Union. So it was it was a special night did dinner ahead of time. We're in the chamber. The chamber, As you all know, is very small.And so, you know, just to your right was the first family in Jared and Ivanka and.And so, you know, we were there as to observe, like everybody else. And wow, it was, it was quite a moment. And I want to just say you did a great job because when you sent your heart out to all of America. I took it. I took it. I took it. I checked it out. took it. You it at the right angle. right, right, You just got a little bit extra And be Nazi no Nazi would have been nobueno, those would be some super racist Trump accounts.😊Keep your protractor and your ruler out when you send your heart out. Okay, what final thing on Jason.You knowWe're signing up over 100,000 kids a day to these Trump accounts we have millions of kids who've already claimed their account, we have nearly 30 million kids in America who are eligible for at least $250 if they just go claim their account, these things are going to go live on July 4th and what it really showed I think the country it accelerated after the state of the union because the president you know really believes this is a way to get everybody Main Street America into the game of capitalism and get them all directly owning you know the great companies in America.It meant a lot to me in that regard that it highlights the importance of the program, so I was deeply grateful to the president.For not only making sure this happens, but the shout out is pretty cool. Good for you, bro, I have an interesting idea for you. I'm sure it's come up already. But with this whole discussion of Ubi, somebody said to me, oh, you know, I really like these Trump accounts Your friends there theInvest America because it's like the start of UbiI. And I was like, well, that's not exactly the intention, but I get it.😊And with wealth disparity going on in the country that has a lot of people concerned, what if there was a giving pledge around equities and people could opt into it, they don't have to. But if somebody like.I don't know, Larryen Sergey or Zuckerberg said, I want to pledge 5% of my shares to go into kids accounts over the next 20 years.What an amazing, beautiful thing that could be. And it would be incredibly material to get whatever it is, a 10th of a share, a hundredth of a share, a0th of a share of whatever company has that come up yet as an idea. I'm sure it's obvious, right.😊It's come up. Stay tuned. But, yes, we're going to have.Some banger announcements as we head towards July 4. All right, let's talk about the war in Iran. Obviously, there are much more important issues than financial ones, life death, the freedom of the people of Iran. But we're uniquely qualified I think to talk about the economic fallout, Second order effects, first order effects. And there has been massive volatility over the last five trading days.Just talking about Brent crude oil. M we key the discussion off of that.Type of oil it spiked $84 on Friday That was day 7 over the war, 119 on Monday, day 10, drop back down to 84, jump back up to 100 after three commercial ships were hit in the st on Wednesday.Those ships, by the way, were not oil tankers. They were carrying cargo. They were flagged as Thai, Japanese and Marshall Islands, Brent crude currently at 99. when we're taping this. It'll be at something different by the time you listen to the pod, I'm sure.But it's quite a spike. And...(已截断)
The Joe Rogan Experience
(1)
#2468 - Luke Grimes
2h 45m
2026/03/14
📝 AI
总结
🎼The Joe Rogan experience during my day Joe Rogan podcast by night all day.😊す要病。🎼IYeah, I've been listening this show for years. Well, I've been watching your show for years. Yeah, we roll Jamie. All right, beautiful. I love your fucking show. It's great. thanks, man, It's really awesome, man. but well, I haven't watched Marshals yet. Is it out now, It is. When did it come out. March 1. Okay, so they just had the second episode air. I like the binge man. Yeah to wait a little bit Stay offline. I like to sit down and bin jump for sure. Yeah, but Yellowstone's fucking awesome. It's such a great show. Did you have any idea. It was gonna be.😊What it is.Not, no. I don't think anybody did. I thought I would find an audience for sure. I mean, Taylor was really, know, hot at the time. he'd been nominated for Oscars and.I was kind of like surprised he was even writing a television show. He was just like so hot in the film business. How the fuck does that guy even sleep, I don't know man, Where does he have the time, Every time I look in the news or there's a new show that he's doing, A new thing he's doing is like, how are you doing all this. It's impressive. You know, I feel there's a lot of people I've worked with where they do things that are impressive, But hiss as impossible, right, You know, like some of you like, could you direct a movie as good as want to forgive.And I'm like, right maybe, maybe if I tried real hard. like, could you write 10 television shows, single handedly, No, no way, not possible. He directed unforgiven. No, I'm just saying like people that I look up to that I'm impressed by. It's like his is a different level. right, His is like, it's like impossible. Who did direct unforgiven. Clin. That's the fucking in greatest Western movie of all time. It is, It's the best. Yeah, It's like, you know, it's what it was like to me. It was like he was making up for all the silly Westerns.And was like, let me show you what it was probably really like. Yeah, what was really like when a man was about to get shot. What was really like when a dude was a stone cold killer. Yeah, what was it really, like the hardships of living back then, Yeah, and it's interesting, too, because he starts out kind of a loser. Yeah, those first, you know, like the first three quarters of the movie. He's this sort of timid guy who's lost his power. You know, and then he takes that one sippo whiskey, And it's all over for everybody else.It's a crazy premise. It's such a good movie. It's such a good fucking movie, man. But yeah, Taylor is a, he's a real freak. And there's not a lot of humans like him. And it's, his background story so interesting.You know, like he was just kind of scrambling around till he was almost like 40. Yeah, it's like a real life rocky. Yeah, or something like ragster Rich is the whole, the whole thing. I know man. It's just, I just don't, I guess that's why he has so much ambition because he knows what it's like to be poor, right, You know, he knows what it's like, like, barely make it. right, Then all of a sudden, he's got a kid on the way. And he's like, oh, shit. I got to buckle down Yeah and really get moving and.He kept his foot on the gas. Absolutely. do you guys keep in touch. Yeah, as buddy said, Yeah, yeah, all the time Peter, I love him. He's an awesome dude. I just worry about him. like.You do so much. Like don't have a fucking heart attack, man. Don't go crazy. You know what's weird is he does, He does like, have a good time, too. It's not like he doesn't hang out with his family or friends. or, you know, that's the the craziest thing to me is like the guy has a really fun life and is able to do all that. I guess like the moral of the story is, don't play golf,.I'll take up No shit man till that to Jamie. if I can get out once a week. That's great. Yeah, he's, he's an addict. Jamie's an addict. he's got a simulator back there. He's always walking golf balls. Yeah, all my friends are trying to get me to play. I'm like, I'm not doing it, man. That's a six hour commitment., man, the amount of time it takes to get good enough that it's not the worst thing ever, right, It's too much time. right, And my problem is, I'm, I'm an addict. Like when I start doing things, I just start like, okay.😊I need to play in the PGA., I start going crazy. I'll start getting lessons and fuck that. Yeah, don't do it. We need your show, man. we need you. It's well, I'm never doing it. We can do both. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, try. We try it. Try it out. No, I know all my friends who play fucking love it. Ron White and Tony Hanch clipiff. They go out every day.It's like it's too much, man. I can't do it. Yeah, Yeah, it's, you can't play golf and do what Taylor's doing. That's for damn Shore, No way.No, how is Hall fuck is Trump doing it. Like he's in the middle of everything. He's always playing golf.But that's sort of the criticism, right like he's playing too much golf and not running the country enough. But don't t...(已截断)